No matter who pitches.
How quickly things can change in a series as the Dodgers are now favorites to win this game and then will become favorites to win the series with Kershaw and Greinke on the bump next. As I mentioned in my POD last night where I was on the Dodgers. The Cardinals struggle big time vs. LHP and that's not just a recent trend it's been happening all year, but now they face another RHP and their offense should score enough to win here. The Dodgers are making a mistake or at least taking a high risk I have to fade by starting Ricky Nolasco who has not pitched since September 25th. Nolasco was supposed to start against the Braves and Mattingly did not like what he saw in the bullpen session and started Kershaw on 3 days rest. Pitchers, especially starting pitchers are creatures of habit and Nolasco has been healthy over his career and rarely made starts where he was on more than 5 days rest. In fact I had to go back to see and since 2008 he's made 6 starts with significant rest and the results are not good posting a non quality start in all 6 and a collective 10.87 ERA. Add in that hte Cardinals have 171 AB, .333 average and a .830 OPS against him with sick numbers from Beltran, Freese, Jay, and Holliday and I love the Cardinals tonight even if Mattingly pulls Nolasco early.
Lance Lynn is coming in under the radar because of his struggled on the road. It's not like the Dodgers are tearing the cover off the ball and Lynn has two starts against the Dodgers on the road in the last 13 months and he dominated in only 12 IP he had 16K's to 3BB's allowing only 7 hits and 1 ER. Collectively the Dodgers have 50 AB and a .436 OPS while Lynn has lower HR/9 percentages and a lower line drive % compared with Nolasco. Cardinals are a gritty bunch who are 54-24 in their last 78 following a loss. They know what is ahead of them if they don't get this win and I think it really got to them the way this Dodgers team was celebrating on the bases. I really expect this team to come out with a great game plan and if Lynn struggles they have enough depth in their bullpen to get some outs and then get to Nolasco. Their bullpen has a 1.88 ERA in their last 3 appearances each combined while the Dodgers are at 2.77. This bullpen has feasted on the road all year and will be the reason they get to the World Series.
